The Green Party is preparing to take advantage of the chaos currently engulfing Labour. Speculation over Keir Starmer’s position is mounting, with former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner calling for the return of Andy Burnham to parliament in an intervention on Sunday night. In a speech on Monday morning, Starmer doubled down, telling gathered journalists he will fight anyone who decides to challenge him. He equivocated on the idea of Burnham returning, saying that would be a decision for Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC).
After a successful set of local election results, the Greens are watching Labour’s situation carefully. In the elections to Manchester City Council, the party took a sizeable chunk out of Labour’s majority. Though only a third of seats were up for grabs, the Greens won 18 of the 32 available, becoming the second largest party on the council. After the Gorton and Denton by-election earlier this year, which Hannah Spencer won with a majority of more than 4,000, they are hopeful that should one of the area’s 24 MPs resign their seat as part of a deal with Burnham, the Greens might claim another victory. (At the time of writing, no MP has resigned, and no by-election has been called.)
One Green Party insider told me that should a by-election be called in a Manchester or adjacent seat, and Burnham is allowed to stand, the party will “throw the kitchen sink” at winning it. The source said the Greens would plan to “hit [Burnham] very hard from his left”. During the local elections in Manchester, the Greens ran a campaign which focused on painting Burnham as part of the “Labour establishment”. The party would do so again in the event of a by-election. When asked whether this strategy would involve the party’s leader, Zack Polanski, putting his name forward, a source close to him said: “He’s always said he’d stand for a London seat as that’s been his home for 20 years.”
This is fighting talk from the Greens, but in the hypothetical event of another by-election in Manchester, would it actually work? A soft left Labour source pushed back: “It might be true that there are no safe Labour seats, but there are safe Burnham seats. His personal popularity and brand is strong enough to return him to parliament – anyone who denies this is denying reality.”
Evidence on the ground seems to back this up. Burnham remains the only politician across the political spectrum to consistently hold a positive net favourability rating, according to polling by Ipsos. (Polanski’s dropped by 14 points last week to -27). As Mayor of Greater Manchester, he has a strong brand in the north-west and when asked by Ipsos which politicians have what it takes to be a good PM, 27 per cent answered Burnham (in comparison, 11 per cent said the same of Angela Rayner and 9 per cent of Wes Streeting).
But will that be enough to beat the Green surge? There are a lot of moving parts. For a start, no north-west by-election is currently set to take place. It’s clear, however, that if and when Burnham does try to make a return to Westminster, it won’t only be his critics in the Labour Party trying to stand in his way.
[Further reading: Labour faces “civil war” to replace Starmer]
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